There is no question about it. The absence of defending champion Maria Sharapova and former world number one Justine Henin will be keenly felt at the 2009 Australian Open.
Yes, this is the second major in a row that is missing both women, but this year’s draw at Melbourne Park is looking rather weak.
Only three women in the tournament have each won two or more Grand Slams. Venus and Serena Williams are on opposite sides of the bottom half, so perhaps we will see at least one of them reach the second week. As for 2006 Australian Open champion Amelie Mauresmo, she could have a tough time just reaching the fourth round.
But underneath every dark cloud is a silver lining. Situated between these three women are another 125 players, each with a legitimate chance to make history by winning their first Australian Open title.
Will it be current world number one Jelena Jankovic? Other women before her have advanced to the top spot without winning a Grand Slam, but Kim Clijsters and Mauresmo still managed to win a big one shortly thereafter. Jankovic might not gain a better chance to succeed, especially with Maria out of the picture and the Williams sisters safely on the other side of the draw.
Or could this finally be Elena Dementieva’s year? Twice the bridesmaid in Grand Slam finals, Dementieva dearly wants at least one major before heading into retirement. She will be remembered for her gold and silver Olympic medals, but a piece of major hardware is still sadly lacking from her resume. At the age of twenty-seven, the clock’s ticking is only growing louder and louder.
Perhaps it will be a talented youngster who has been waiting in the wings for a moment of opportunity? Dinara Safina is already looking solid this year, plus keep your eyes on Victoria Azarenka, Caroline Wozniacki and Chinese hopeful Zheng Jie.
First Quarter
Not surprisingly, Jelena Jankovic is already sick before the first ball has even been struck. The world number one arrived in Melbourne with the flu and from early accounts her illness has impacted her practice sessions. She attempted to get some matchplay at the Hong Kong exhibition at the start of the year, only to find herself being used as target practice by Venus Williams.
Jankovic should have a few days to shake off any off-season rust and shed herself of the sniffles, but things could get exciting as quickly as the third round against Japanese veteran Ai Sugiyama. Sugiyama reached the semifinals at the Premier Medibank International this week, something that will certainly boost her confidence. A host of struggling players are also in Jankovic’s quarter, including Sania Mirza, Marion Bartoli, Nadia Petrova and Agnes Szavay. The real player to watch apart from Jankovic is seventh seed Vera Zvonareva. If Vera starts 2009 the way she ended 2008, Jankovic needs to be prepared for a tough match.
Second Quarter
This part of the draw is filled with intriguing first round matches. Jelena Dokic vs. Tamira Paszek will be an Aussie-favorite during the first few days of the tournament, along with Casey Dellacqua’s opening match against Daniela Hantuchova. Another match that will be worth watching is Caroline Wozniacki vs. Shahar Peer.
The jury is still out on Ana Ivanovic and her chances of upstaging her countrywoman Jelena Jankovic. Ivanovic, last year’s French Open champion, had a marvelous first half of the season in 2008, but her results during the rest of the year were mediocre. Although she supposedly separated from her coach Sven Groeneveld during the off-season, the adidas-appointed coach is back in her camp in Melbourne. Another new addition to Team Ivanovic is boyfriend ATP player Fernando Verdasco.
Third Quarter
Venus Williams ended 2008 on a brilliant note at the season-ending Sony Ericsson Championships, and although she has not played any official matches, her record is still perfect after winning at the JB Group Classic in Hong Kong. Exhibitions are not always the best test of a player’s form, but for Venus, it quickly helped her get back in the groove after her vacation.
I like Venus’ chances this year, but she will find a worthy adversary in Elena Dementieva. Elena is unbeaten in 2009 with titles at the ASB Classic and the Medibank International. She has never been over strong in the confidence department, but this year, she should be feeling good about her chances to again reach a major final.
Serena Williams
Every time the Australian Open rolls around, I always remember to never discount Serena Williams. Two years removed from her Cinderella run to the title in 2007, Serena is again hungry for another championship. The stakes are always high, but at least this time, Serena has the advantage of a second seeded position, instead of a lowly ranking of No. 81 that propelled her into the path of six seeded players before she finally hoisted the trophy.
Out of all the top seeds, Serena has the toughest draw on paper. Amelie Mauresmo could be an unpredictable floater in the fourth round, as could Victoria Azarenka. Should Serena reach the quarterfinals, she could meet up with Grand Slam giant-killer Agnieszka Radwanska, who appears to save her best tennis for majors, or face the likes of Zheng Jie, Alona Bondarenko, or Svetlana Kuznetsova, who spent most of 2008 stuck in a slump. Then of course, Serena might have to get past her sister Venus or Elena Dementieva in the semifinals.
Aaress’ Picks for the 2009 Australian Open
Quarterfinals
Jelena Jankovic d. Vera Zvonareva
Dinara Safina d. Caroline Wozniacki
Elena Dementieva d. Venus Williams
Serena Williams d. Agnieszka Radwanska
Semifinals
Dinara Safina d. Jelena Jankovic
Elena Dementieva d. Serena Williams
Championship Match
Elena Dementieva d. Dinara Safina
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From my perspective Aaress, i’m not looking as far ahead as Jankovic.
But I respectfully disagree about the tournament looking weak. Justine made her choice.
A tournament with both Williams sisters is demonstrably strong. Even if they clash well before the final. There are lots of talented rising stars. it is perfect opportunity for them to make their mark. Or for a more seasoned player on the magins to become the story of the tournament. We shall see. Enjoy!!
This is how I see it.
Jelena Jankovic d. Vera Zvonareva
Dinara Safina d. Ivonovic
Venus Williams d. Elena Dementieva
Serena Williams d. Agnieszka Radwanska
Semifinals
Dinara Safina d. Jelena Jankovic
Venus Williams d. Serena Williams
Championship Match
Venus Williams d. Dinara Safina
just wondering: how often in the past have “lower ranked” players come out to win a tournament when two of the major players are withdrawn and then, have the new winners remained a top player…or do they stay in the lower rankings?
[...] the Baseline will publish a comprehensive look at the four quarters of the women’s draw tomorrow. In the meanwhile, you can view a copy of the complete draw at [...]
Just for clarification, Clijsters needed more than two years before she won her sole singles grand slam and Mauresmo took a year and a few months before Henin(-Hardenne, at the time) retired to give her the championship. I do agree that Jankovic will not need quite so much time. I look to the French for her to triumph.
Alice, the Williams sisters do add a considerable level of strength to the draw, but if you take them out of the picture, there are not exactly other pillars of strength in the draw. For example, it would be a surprise to see Serena or Venus fall in the third round or so. But, if say Jankovic or Elena were knocked out, would it be equally as surprising?
Kurt, thanks for the clarification. I do think Jankovic needs to win a major this season. The French would likely be her best shot, especially as Venus, Maria, and to an extent, Serena struggle on clay.
Excellent question! I took a look at the winners of the past couple of years, and not counting Serena Williams’ Australian Open title in 2006 and Venus Williams’ Wimbledon title in 2007, the last big surprises came in 2004 when the Russian players—Anastasia Myskina, Maria Sharapova, and Svetlana Kuznetsova—won Grand Slams. I didn’t count the Williams sisters victories because although they were ranked low, they had already achieved a significant measure of success.
In the case of the Russians, Anastasia Myskina never went on to win anything major again. She was ranked at No. 5 at the time of winning the French Open, but it was still a surprise. Svetlana Kuznetsova won a few months later at the US Open, but sadly again, has never won another Grand Slam, despite reaching a few big finals.
Sharapova is the exception. Her career literally took off overnight after beating Serena Williams in the 2004 Wimbledon Championships, but it did take her another two years before she won another major tournament.
Perhaps someone else can cite a better example than these of a player truly coming out of nowhere to win a title?
Who knows, but I think that unknown factor is precisely what should make for a fascinating two weeks.
I just know never to mis-underestimate Serena.
But Jankovic needs one badly.
As for Justine, No! she took the call. Only the ones can be the ones.
Whoever wins the Q.F between Venus and Dementieva,will win the A.O!